Iran at the Crossroads: Domestic Fracture, Regional Conflict, and the Struggle for Survival
Abstract The Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself at a precarious juncture. External military pressure, a crippling sanctions regime, and deep internal fractures have converged to create a crisis that challenges the very foundations of the regime. This article examines the interplay between Iran's nuclear ambitions, its regional proxy network, and the domestic political dynamics that have shaped its response to escalating confrontation with the United States and Israel. Drawing on analysis from the 2025-2026 period, the article argues that Iran's leadership is divided less over the principle of regime survival than over the tactics required to achieve it—a division that has been exposed by the wartime killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the emergence of a more opaque, militarised decision-making structure. The article further examines Iran's shifting relationships with regional and global powers, the economic impact of sanctions, and the prospects for either diplom...